Historian predicts Kamala Harris win in White House race
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DesiMax Wire- 0
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Allan Lichtman, the historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, forecasts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win this year’s White House race.
In a video first reported by The New York Times, Lichtman explained that his prediction is based on a set of thirteen “keys” or true-false questions assessing the strength and performance of the incumbent party in the White House.
READ: Kamala Harris won’t save Democrats, warns historian (July 8, 2024)
According to Lichtman, eight of the keys favor Democratic candidate Harris, while three favor her Republican rival Donald Trump. Lichtman notes that “foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip.”
He added, “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, there would still be only five negative keys, which would not be enough for the former President Trump to regain the White House.”
As a result, Lichtman predicts Harris will win.
Lichtman, “Distinguished Professor” at American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman is widely recognized for his political commentary and election forecasting.
His keys include questions such as:
- Did the White House party gain House seats during the midterm elections?
- Is the sitting president running for reelection?
- Is the White House party avoiding a primary contest?
- Is there a third-party challenger?
- Is the short-term economy strong?
- Has long-term economic growth been as good as in the previous two terms?
- Has the White House party made major changes to national policy?
- Is there sustained social unrest during the term?
- Is the White House untainted by scandal, and is the incumbent party charismatic?
- Is the challenger uncharismatic?
- Is the incumbent charismatic?
- Has the White House party experienced a major failure in foreign policy?
- Has the White House party achieved foreign policy success
