Kamala Harris has better chance to beat Trump: CNN poll

Democrats have a better chance of keeping the White House if Indian American Vice President Kamala Harris is the nominee instead of President Joe Biden, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

With Biden’s approval rating hitting a new low following a shaky performance against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the first presidential debate, three-quarters of US voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot without him at the top of the ticket.

In a matchup between the presumptive major-party nominees, voters nationwide favor the former President over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall.

The poll also finds Harris within striking distance of Trump in a hypothetical matchup: 47% of registered voters support Trump, 45% Harris, a result within the margin of error that suggests there is no clear leader under such a scenario.

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Harris’ slightly stronger showing against Trump rests at least in part on broader support from women (50% of female voters back Harris over Trump vs. 44% for Biden against Trump) and independents (43% Harris vs. 34% Biden).

Several other Democrats have been mentioned as potential Biden replacements in recent days, and each trails Trump among registered voters, with their levels of support similar to Biden’s, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom (48% Trump to 43% Newsom), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (47% Trump to 43% Buttigieg), and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (47% Trump to 42% Whitmer).

Biden’s approval rating in the poll has fallen to a new low among all Americans (36%), with 45% now saying they strongly disapprove of his performance, a new high in CNN’s polling.

Among the full US public, Biden’s favorability rating stands at just 34%, with 58% viewing him unfavorably. And while many of the Democratic names bandied about as possible replacements for Biden are less widely disliked, none would start with more public goodwill – instead, they are less well known.

Harris has the widest recognition – and is also deeply underwater, with a 29% favorability rating, 49% rating her unfavorably, and 22% saying they have no opinion or haven’t heard of her. Roughly half of the public has no opinion on Buttigieg (50%) and Newsom (48%), with about two-thirds (69%) offering no opinion of Whitmer.

The president’s central challenge in his reelection bid remains winning over skeptical and persuadable voters, and the poll suggests neither Biden nor Trump have won them over yet.

These persuadable voters are more likely to dislike both Trump and Biden (38% have an unfavorable view of both candidates, compared with 9% among voters who have made a choice), and are less likely to see important differences between Biden and Trump (18% say they are pretty much the same, compared with 5% of those who have made a choice).

These voters are also more likely to support an alternative Democrat against Trump than they are to choose Biden. In hypothetical matchups, they break 47% for Harris to 34% for Trump, 42% for Newsom to 36% for Trump, and 42% for Buttigieg to 35% for Trump.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 among a random national sample of 1,274 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,045 registered voters.

Meanwhile, Harris is the top alternative to replace Biden if he decides not to continue his reelection campaign, Reuters reported citing to seven unnamed senior sources at the Biden campaign, the White House and the Democratic National Committee with knowledge of current discussions on the topic.

If named as the party nominee, Harris, 59, would take over money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure, the sources said. She also has the highest name recognition among all the alternatives, and the highest polling among Democrats who could seriously be considered a candidate, the sources said.

In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris trailed Trump by one percentage point at 42% to 43%, a difference that was well within the poll’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error, a showing statistically just as strong as Biden’s.

But Harris’s aides dismissed any talk of a Democratic ticket that doesn’t include both Biden and Harris, according to Reuters. “Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term with President Joe Biden,” a statement from her office said.

Harris’s approval ratings hover under 40%, but according to recent polling highlighted by the Biden campaign, she and the president have similar odds of beating Trump.