Kamala Harris leads Trump by 38 points among Asian American voters

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leads Republican rival Donald Trump by 38 percentage points, expanding President Joe Biden’s 15-point lead by 23 percentage points since the Spring, according to a new survey.

Two thirds (66%) of Asian American voters plan on voting for Vice President Harris, compared to 28% who say they back former President Trump, according to a survey of Asian American and Pacific Islander adults.

Those who say they will support another candidate or are undecided account for 6%, according to the survey, the first since Biden dropped out of the race and Harris became the Democratic nominee, released Tuesday by Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIAVote) and AAPI Data.

The poll, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago, shows a dramatic increase in support for the Democratic presidential ticket among Asian American voters since the release of the organizations’ bi-annual Asian American Voter Survey (AAVS) in July.

READ: Historian predicts Kamala Harris win in White House race (September 17, 2024)

In the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May, 46% of Asian American voters backed Biden and 31% supported Trump, while 23% said they planned to vote for someone else or were undecided.

The 2020 AAVS, which was conducted in July-September that year, 54% said they planned to vote for Biden, 30% for Trump, and 16% for someone else or were undecided.

“These results reinforce what we’ve been hearing and seeing from the Asian American community since July:  they are re-energized and poised to once again play a decisive role in the election,” said Christine Chen, Co-Founder and Executive Director of APIAVote.

“It’s also clear that the major parties and campaigns are no longer overlooking or taking AAPI voters for granted, but instead making concerted efforts to reach out and engage them on the issues that matter most to them.”

“Asian American and Pacific Islander voters are poised to play a pivotal role in this election,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, Executive Director of AAPI Data. “Instead of speculating about how AAPI voters and volunteers are reacting to the Harris, Walz, and Vance candidacies, we have nationally representative, in-language survey data to inform news coverage and public understanding.”

Key Findings

Candidate favorability: Harris’ favorability among Asian American voters has increased 18 points since the Spring, while her running mate Tim Walz is far more popular as a vice presidential candidate than Trump’s pick JD Vance.

About 62% of Asian American voters say they have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris, compared to 35% who have an unfavorable opinion of the Vice President.

Shekar Narasimhan: How can any self-respecting Indian American vote for Trump? (September 14, 2024)

In the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May, 44 percent had a favorable view of Harris and 42 percent unfavorable.

About 28% of Asian American voters have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, compared to 70% who have an unfavorable opinion of the former President.

In the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May, 34% had a favorable view of Trump and 62% unfavorable.

About 56% of Asian American voters have a favorable opinion of Tim Walz, compared to 18% who have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic nominee for vice president. As many as 26% don’t know enough to have an opinion.

About 21% of Asian American voters have a favorable opinion of JD Vance, compared to 58% who have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican nominee for vice president. About 22% don’t know enough to have an opinion.

Certainty of Voting: Asian American voters are more likely to say that they are absolutely certain they will vote compared to April-May of this year.

As many as 77%of Asian American voters said they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the 2024 election, up from 68- who said the same in the 2024 AAVS conducted in April-May.

In the 2020 AAVS, conducted in July-September of 2020, 82- of Asian American voters said they are “absolutely certain” they would vote in the 2020 election.

Voter Contact & Outreach: Asian American voters are far more likely to say they’ve been contacted by the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.

About 62% of Asian American voters say they’ve been contacted by the Democratic Party, compared to 46 percent who say the same for the Republican Party.

READ: South Asians rally behind Kamala Harris in droves (August 12, 2024)

In the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May, 45% of Asian American voters say they had been contacted by the Democratic Party, compared to 38% who say the same for the Republican Party.

About 27% of Asian American voters say they have still not been contacted by either party, down from 42% in the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May.

Harris’ Identity: Asian American voters say Harris’ identity as a woman is more important than her identity as Asian Indian or South Asian. About 38% of Asian American voters say Harris’ identity as a woman is “extremely” or “very” important to them, compared to 27% who say the same about her identity as an Asian Indian or South Asian.

Asian Americans have been a rapidly growing group of eligible voters in the US over the past two decades, growing by 15 percent in the last four years alone and turning out in record numbers in every federal election since 2016. In 2020, a surge in Asian American voters – especially those voting for the very first time – in battleground states was crucial to Biden’s victory.

The 2024 AAPI Voter Survey was conducted between Sep 3-9, 2024 by NORC using NORC’s Amplify AAPI® Panel for the sample source. The overall margin of error is +/- 4.7%.