Kamala Harris slightly shrinks Trump’s leads in battleground states

Even as former President Donald Trump is narrowly leading Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, in several battleground states, the Indian American contender is polling slightly better than President Joe Biden, who quit the race in her favor.

A survey released by Emerson College Polling and The Hill on Thursday found Trump leading Harris by 5 points in Arizona, 49% to 44%; by 2 points in Georgia, 48% to 46%; by 1 point in Michigan, 46% to 45%; by 2 points in Pennsylvania, 48% to 46%; and tied with her at 47% in Wisconsin.

In every state except Arizona, the polling falls within the survey’s margin of error, meaning Trump and Harris could actually be tied in most of the battleground state match-ups.

Harris notably outpaces Biden in polling of each of the battleground states since a similar survey was released earlier this month, outperforming the president by 5 points in Georgia, 4 points in Arizona and Wisconsin and 3 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

An aggregate of national polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ had Trump leading Harris as of Wednesday afternoon, roughly 48% to 46% — a slightly narrower margin than an aggregate of national polls showing Trump leading Biden 47% to 43%.

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained in a press release. “Harris’s numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: Her support increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.”

Democrats have rallied around Harris after Biden announced over the weekend he would be withdrawing from the presidential race, instead backing his vice president. A number of high-profile Democrats quickly threw their support behind Harris, with just weeks to go before the Democratic National Convention.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey surveyed respondents from July 22-23.

In the days since launching her presidential bid, Harris is polling slightly better than Biden did against Trump — but the upended 2024 race is still statistically tied, according to a CNN/SSRS poll published Wednesday.

Harris drew the support of 46% of registered voters in a hypothetical match-up, lower than Trump’s 49% but within the poll’s margin of error.

Trump’s support is unchanged compared to previous editions of the CNN poll, while Harris polls 3 percentage points better than Biden did in a survey released early this month.

The poll found that Harris’ sudden ascension to the top of the ticket has excited a Democratic base that was demoralized even before the weekslong drama about Biden’s disappointing June debate performance.

At the same time, Trump hit his highest favorability rating among CNN polls since 2020, with backing from 43% of voters, following an assassination attempt, and a unifying week at the Republican National Convention.

Compared to Biden’s polling in the early July CNN survey, Harris polls 9 percentage points higher among independents, 8 percentage points higher among people of color, 6 percentage points higher among women and voters under 35, and 5 percentage points higher among non-college educated voters.

The survey did not measure any shifts in support of similar magnitude for Trump.

There are other signs throughout the poll that voters are energized by Harris’ candidacy, even as they also view Trump more positively.

Among Harris supporters, 50% say their vote is more so a vote for Harris, and 50% say their vote is more so a vote against Trump.

That’s a significant flip from June, when only 37% of Biden supporters said their support was more so a vote for him and 63% said it was more so a vote against Trump.

Trump has similarly seen his supporters rally around him as a candidate. Seventy-four percent of those who plan to vote for him say their vote is more out of support for him rather than opposition to Harris, up 8 percentage points when the same question was asked in June about a Trump-Biden matchup. And 88% of Republicans say the party has a better chance of victory with Trump than anyone else, with a record share of Americans echoing this view.

The CNN/SSRS poll was conducted July 22-23, surveying 1,631 registered voters via phone and online panels with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.