Kamala Harris won’t save Democrats, warns historian

The professor who correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says Harris could do better only if Biden steps down now

Amid mounting speculation that Kamala Harris may replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee, a professor and historian, who successfully predicted the last nine out of 10 elections since 1984, believes she can’t save Democrats.

Biden is still the safest bet for Democrats, says Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University, who uses a prediction model called “Keys to the White House.”

Lichtman’s model consists of 13 true-or-false questions to determine the performance of the party holding the White House. If six or more of the 13 keys are false, then the holding party, in this case, the Democrats, will lose.

Lichtman told The Wall Street Journal that based on that Biden has provided Democrats with seven keys so far: the incumbency, no significant primary contest, no recession during the election, a strong long-term economy based on real per capita economic growth compared to the average of the previous two terms, major policy changes, no major scandal directly pertaining to the president, and an uncharismatic challenger.

Indian American Vice President may be the most obvious and viable option for Democrats after Biden’s disastrous performance in the first presidential debate, but if Harris were to become the new nominee, Democrats risk losing two of those keys Biden secured: the incumbency and the primary contest, he says.

“Biden steps aside, they lose obviously the incumbency,” Lichtman told the Journal. “And it’s not at all clear that there wouldn’t be a big party fight.”

Lichtman said the only scenario — and one that appears highly unlikely at this point — in which Harris could maintain the same keys Biden has is if Biden steps down from the presidency now and hands over the White House to the VP a few months before the election.

He said Harris would obtain the incumbency key, and Biden could then release his delegates to his VP to secure the contest key.

Lichtman has predicted election outcomes since Ronald Reagan secured his second term against Democratic challenger Walter Mondale in 1984. The only election he missed was in 2000, when he predicted Al Gore would secure the presidency, although the historian argued that he correctly predicted that Gore would win the popular vote.