Kamala Harris would have lost even if every voter had turned up: Report

In fact Trump would have won the popular vote by five points — rather than just the 1.7 points he beat Harris by

By Arun Kumar

As Democrats keep agonising over why Indian American Vice President Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, a shocking new report suggests that he would have won by an even larger margin if every registered voter turned up.

Trump would have won the popular vote by five points — rather than just the 1.7 points he beat Harris by — if all the registered voters showed up to the poll, according to Democratic Party data scientist David Schor.

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“So I think that a ‘we need to turn up the temperature and mobilize everyone’ strategy would’ve made things worse,” Schor, the head of Blue Rose Research, told Vox.

His firm had conducted 26 million voter interviews in 2024 and found that registered Democrats largely turned against the party, while moderates and those who are typically disengaged turned toward the Republicans.

“There were a lot of Democratic voters who were angry at their party last year,” he explained. “And they were mostly moderate and conservative Democrats angry about the cost of living and other issues. And even though they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Republican, a lot of them stayed home.

“But basically, their complaints were very similar to those of Biden voters who flipped to Trump,” Schor said.

Meanwhile, those who were the least politically engaged swung largely against Democrats. Those politically disengaged voters went from being a roughly neutral group in 2020 to favoring the Republicans by about 15 points in 2024, Blue Rose Research Found.

That same group, though, overwhelmingly favored Democrats during the Obama-era “But we’re now at a point where the more people vote, the better Republicans do,” Schor said.

He also noted that Harris performed just as well as the 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton did among white conservatives, white liberals and white moderates. Among the Hispanic and Asian voters, though, there were double-digit declines.

Schor attributed that decline to the Democratic party focusing on ideological issues, while voters were focusing on economic issues. “I really cannot stress how much people cared about the cost of living,” he said.

‘If you ask what’s more important, the cost of living or some other issue picked at random, people picked the cost of living 91% of the time. It’s really hard to get 91% of people to click on anything in a survey,” Schor noted.

The report also suggests that social media—particularly TikTok—played a surprising role in Harris’ defeat as she suffered substantial losses among young and politically disengaged voters, a demographic that had previously leaned Democratic.

The study suggests that TikTok, a platform known for shaping political discourse among Gen Z, may have contributed to shifting political attitudes, particularly among young men.

Many nonwhite moderates and conservatives, who had previously backed Democrats, moved toward the Republican camp. This shift was especially pronounced among younger voters, a traditionally left-leaning group that, in this election, showed an increased preference for conservative policies and candidates.

TikTok, a platform heavily used by young people, played a role in amplifying right-wing messaging. Unlike Twitter and Facebook, where content is driven by engagement and established networks, TikTok’s algorithm has been known to promote populist and counter-mainstream narratives.

While the Democratic Party has traditionally relied on social media to mobilize young voters, the virality of conservative content on TikTok may have made it more difficult for Harris’s campaign to control the narrative.

Another key factor highlighted in the report was the increasing ideological polarization among nonwhite voters. Historically, minority voters were more likely to lean Democratic regardless of their ideological stance.

However, in 2024, nonwhite moderates and conservatives voted more in line with their white counterparts, indicating a broader realignment within the electorate.

This change, coupled with growing discontent over economic issues, cost Harris crucial votes. While the Biden administration had emphasized job growth and economic recovery, many working-class voters—especially those struggling with inflation and cost-of-living concerns—felt that the Democrats were not adequately addressing their needs.

As the party looks ahead to future elections, one thing is clear: the influence of social media in shaping political attitudes is more powerful than ever. Whether the Democrats can adapt to this new reality will likely determine their success in the years to come, according to the report.