Trump, Harris neck and neck in battleground states, nationally: CBS Poll

Boosted by Democrats, younger and Black voters becoming more engaged and likely to vote, and by women decidedly thinking she’d favor their interests more, Vice President Kamala Harris has reset the 2024 presidential race.

Indian American presidential contender and former President Donald Trump are now tied in key battleground states, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll published Sunday, as Democrats rally behind Harris as their new official nominee.

The poll also found Harris leading Trump by 1 point nationally, a much better position for Democrats than with President Joe Biden, who was down by 5 points when he left the race.

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The candidates are tied with 50% support each in battlegrounds, while Harris leads Trump 50 to 49% nationally in a head-to-head race, the poll found. When third-party candidates are included, Harris extends to a 2-point lead over the former president.

Looking ahead, voters are also defining why the next few weeks could be critical.

On one hand, Harris has additional edges with the wider electorate that Biden did not: she’s leading Trump on being seen as having the cognitive health to serve, a measure that was of course central to the campaign before Biden stepped aside.

And on policy generally, Harris is seen as a little different from Biden, opening some possibility of defining her stances for the electorate now, either way, according to CBS.

But to Trump’s advantage, some critical things have not changed: he keeps his sizable lead on voters saying they’ll be financially better off with him and that his policies would decrease migrants at the border.

Harris’s campaign opened to mass enthusiasm from Democrats after she took over for Biden, breaking fundraising records and drawing large crowds. That enthusiasm has also been shown in polls, with more Democrats saying they will “definitely” vote than with Biden as the nominee.

READ: Kamala Harris can prevent Trump from dragging US towards authoritarianism: Salman Rushdie (July 29, 2024)

Overall, 85% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans say they will vote, compared to 81% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans last month.

Among Black voters, a key demographic for Harris, 74% said they would “definitely” vote compared to 58% when Biden was the nominee.

Harris now has 81% support among Black voters, compared to 73% support for Biden. Democratic strategists had warned for months that Biden was losing ground with this key section of the party’s base.

Harris has also widened the gender gap between the candidates, with the vice president winning 54% of women’s votes. Trump, meanwhile, is winning 54% of men, according to the poll.

Harris neck-and-neck with Trump after campaign launch: poll (July 24, 2024)

In battlegrounds, Harris and Trump are tied in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona, according to the poll. Trump has a 1-point lead in Wisconsin and a 3-point lead in Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris has a 2-point lead in Nevada.

The CBS News/YouGov poll surveyed about 3,100 registered voters between July 30 and Aug 2, with a margin of error of 2.1%.