Harris neck-and-neck with Trump after campaign launch: poll

Days after emerging as the likely Democratic presidential nominee, Indian American Vice President Kamala Harris is neck-and-neck with former President Donald Trump in a new poll conducted after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

With a spike in undecided independent voters, in a head-to-head matchup, Harris polled with about 45% support among registered voters, compared with the Republican nominee Trump at 46%, a NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll released Tuesday, found.

Respondents were surveyed only on Monday, the first full day of Harris’ presidential campaign and the day Biden withdrew from seeking the Democratic nomination in an announcement that upended the 2024 race.

READ: Kamala Harris wins enough delegates to win Democratic nod (July 23, 2024)

With third-party candidates included, Harris and Trump are tied with 42% support each as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. nabs 7%.

The poll found a stark uptick in undecided independents — rising to 21% in a Trump-Harris matchup from 4% in the Trump-Biden matchup measured by the last edition of the poll less than two weeks ago. Nine percent of registered voters overall are now undecided, up from 2% earlier this month.

While Harris seems set to clinch the Democratic nomination with pledges from a majority of delegates to the Democratic National Convention within 36 hours of Biden’s withdrawal, the poll found some difference between Harris and Biden’s bases of support.

When measured alongside third-party candidates, Harris polls worse than Biden among independents, college graduates and voters over 35, but better among non-college graduates, non-white voters and especially voters under 35 — polling 10 percentage points higher than Biden last did with the younger crowd.

READ: Indian American bodies endorse Kamala Harris for President (July 22, 2024)

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday found Harris leading Trump by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, among registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The question is an open one as to whether Harris will experience a “honeymoon” period bump in the polls from her unifying ascension to the top of the ticket — as the Trump campaign predicted in a memo Tuesday — or if Republicans’ rallying around Trump following his assassination attempt will prove insurmountable for Democrats.

The Marist Poll’s survey is also its first conducted since Trump selected his running mate, Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, finding that 28% of voters have a favorable impression of the senator, 31% have an unfavorable impression and 41% are unsure.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll was conducted July 22, surveying 1,117 registered voters through online panels with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Polls conducted entirely in one day can also contain other unique sources of error.

Meanwhile, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted from July 19 to July 22, mostly before Biden ended his reelection bid on Sunday, found Harris (46%) tied with Trump (46%) among registered voters in a hypothetical matchup. Immediately before withdrawing, Biden (45%) was tied with Trump (45%) as well.

READ: Biden bows out, endorses Kamala Harris for president (July 21, 2024)

But compared to the president, Harris performs three points better among women, seven points better among Americans aged 18 to 29, seven points better among independents, eight points better among Black Americans and 13 points better among those who view both Biden and Trump unfavorably.

Trump leads Harris 43% to 41% when third-party candidates are factored in; independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. siphons off 5% of the vote. The new Yahoo News/YouGov poll showed Biden in an identical position prior to bowing out.

Harris’s favorable rating among Americans (40%) is slightly higher than Biden’s (37%) — but slightly lower than Trump’s (43%). Just 35% of Americans approve of the job she’s doing as vice president, which is roughly as bad as Biden’s rating (37% — a new low) and significantly worse than his predecessor’s, at least in retrospect.

Looking back, slightly more Americans now approve (47%) than disapprove (46%) of how Trump handled the presidency.

However, the share of Americans who disapprove of the job Harris is doing (48%) isn’t in Biden territory yet. Why? Because 16% of them remain unsure what to think about her performance in office.